Electric Cars Vs Diesel: The End Of Combustion Engines In Europe By 2035
The European automotive landscape is undergoing a historic shift: electric cars (EVs) are now outselling diesel vehicles in Europe. This milestone, first achieved in 2023, is the result of several converging forces, including the European Union's ambitious climate goals, significant financial support for EV buyers, and continuous improvements in electric car performance.
The image of diesel, long favoured for its efficiency, has been severely damaged by the Dieselgate scandal and subsequent stricter emissions standards. This has increased the complexity and cost of diesel vehicles, while EVs are gaining popularity due to their environmental benefits, lower maintenance costs, and quieter operation.
Part 1: Market Trends and Diesel's Decline
Sales figures confirm the accelerated shift: between January and November 2023, electric models accounted for 13.7% of total European sales, surpassing diesel vehicles for the first time. This upward trajectory is supported by a 76.9% increase in electrified car sales during the first half of 2020 compared to the previous year, with 1,560,000 EVs registered in 2022.
Factors Contributing to EV Success
1. The European Union's Climate Objectives
The EU is targeting a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2050. A key measure to achieve this is the ban on the sale of new internal combustion engine (ICE) cars by 2035. Since the transport sector accounts for roughly 25% of the EU's total emissions, this ban is designed to stimulate the EV market and improve air quality in urban centres.
2. Financial Assistance and Incentives
Financial support remains a crucial tool for stimulating the transition. In France, several subsidies are available for EV purchases, which can be combined:
- Ecological Bonus: €5,000 for new EVs costing less than €47,000. This is increased to €7,000 for low-income households (Reference Tax Income < €14,089). *Note: Eligibility also now depends on the vehicle's "environmental score."*
- Conversion Premium: Up to €5,000 for scrapping an older, polluting vehicle (Crit'Air 1 to 5) in exchange for a new EV.
- Social Leasing: Electric car hire starting at €100/month for low-income households.
For example, a low-income household meeting all criteria could receive up to €12,000 (€7,000 Bonus + €5,000 Premium) in financial assistance.
3. Contrasting Example: Germany's Subsidy Cut
In contrast to France, Germany abolished its environmental bonus for EV purchases in December 2023 due to budgetary constraints. This highlights the varying commitment and stability of incentives across the bloc.
Part 2: Technological Advancement and Industry Investment
Improving EV Performance
Automakers are aggressively addressing common barriers to adoption—namely, range and charging time. Progress is tangible: the average range of EVs sold in Europe reached 320 km in 2023, up from 250 km in 2020, while average home charging time has dropped.
Key areas of focus for improved performance include:
- Battery Technology: Developing more energy-dense and lighter batteries to increase range without increasing vehicle weight.
- Vehicle Architecture: Optimising design, such as integrating batteries into the vehicle structure, to reduce weight and improve energy efficiency.
- New Technologies: Advancements in ultra-fast charging and wireless charging to enhance the user experience.
Part 3: The 2035 ICE Ban and Future Outlook
The ban on new ICE car sales by 2035 is definitive, adopted by the European Parliament and the EU Council. This major policy aims to ensure that 100% of new car sales are electric by that date, significantly contributing to climate neutrality.
Benefits and Challenges of the Ban
While the ban promises substantial benefits—including reduced greenhouse gas emissions, improved air quality, and job creation in the EV sector—it also poses major challenges:
- Investment Required: Massive investment in production facilities and the electric charging infrastructure network is required across the continent.
- Pricing: A risk of higher EV prices persists, potentially excluding some consumers.
- Job Transition: Negative impact on jobs within the traditional automotive manufacturing sector.
To support this transition, the EU is implementing measures like a gradual reduction in taxes on EVs, increased subsidies, and tougher emission standards for remaining ICE vehicles. The goal is to deploy 3 million charging stations by 2030.
Part 4: Competition from China
European manufacturers face intense competition from China, which is a global leader in EV production, accounting for over half of the world's total output in 2022. Chinese manufacturers enjoy significant advantages:
- Government Support: Subsidies and regulations highly favourable to electric vehicles.
- Lower Production Costs: Benefiting from cheap labour and highly integrated supply chains.
- Domestic Market Scale: Access to the world's largest EV market, enabling economies of scale.
The market share of Chinese manufacturers in Europe rose from 2% in 2020 to 8% in 2022. European and American automakers, such as Volkswagen, Stellantis, and Ford, are responding with billions of Euros/Dollars in dedicated investments to remain competitive.
Conclusion
Electric cars are rapidly becoming the norm in Europe, driven by government mandate and technological superiority over diesel. The 2035 ban on new ICE sales will accelerate this trend, making EVs more affordable, efficient, and environmentally friendly. This shift is reshaping the entire automotive industry, demanding heavy investment and innovation to meet both climate targets and fierce global competition.
To find out more about your electric options, visit the Beev.co website or contact an advisor.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) on Europe's EV Transition
The ban was adopted by the European Parliament and the EU Council, making it a definitive target for new car sales within the bloc. While the regulation is fixed, political pressures or unexpected technological changes could potentially lead to minor revisions or exceptions (such as for synthetic e-fuels) in the future, but the goal of 100% zero-emission new cars remains firm.
The environmental score is a new criterion introduced to ensure subsidies primarily benefit vehicles produced with a low carbon footprint. It evaluates the carbon emissions generated during the vehicle’s production, including the materials used, energy consumed during assembly, and transportation from the factory to the point of sale. This measure is intended to exclude EVs produced in regions (like China) using high-carbon energy grids.
The EU has set a target to deploy 3 million charging stations by 2030 to combat "range anxiety." This is supported by EU funding initiatives and regulations requiring member states to ensure a minimum density of public charging points along major road networks.